Israeli Elections: Fanatics, Generals, and the Question of Palestine

The upcoming Israeli election on Tuesday, October 27, has been called watershed, pivotal, defining, even fateful. The central question is whether defeating Netanyahu would change Israel’s policies or simply change the people managing them.

Netanyahu's political fortunes have weakened in recent years due to his dependence on the religious far right, the mishandling of the war, and his resistance to an independent state commission of inquiry into the security failures of October 7. Former generals turned politicians have repeatedly rallied around Netanyahu when his leadership loses public confidence.

However, a new general in the prime minister's office, Gadi Eisenkot, may challenge this mindset. Eisenkot has emerged as a leading political contender with his recently established party, Yashar, which has been polling strongly.

He promises to restore order, competence, and security, but his military record also includes Israel's use of overwhelming force against Gaza's largely peaceful Great March of Return protests in 2018-19. Eisenkot's appeal rests on the promise of better leadership, greater accountability, and a more competent security establishment.

However, his victory would not necessarily entail a fundamental change in Israel's policies toward the Palestinians. He could defeat Netanyahu's Likud in the race for Knesset seats but fail to assemble a governing coalition, leaving Israel in political limbo.

Netanyahu's dependence on the religious far right has intensified Israel's political divisions. His opponents offer a different style of leadership and promise to restore institutional credibility.

However, a government led by Eisenkot will still maintain Israel's military presence in Gaza, oppose Palestinian statehood, and resist restrictions on illegal settlement expansion. The election will test whether Israeli voters are prepared to reject Netanyahu.

The question is whether replacing the politician with the general will change the country's policies or simply make their pursuit more disciplined and politically palatable.